Are they heading for doldrums?

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Fundamentals & technicals are words of the past, it’s the sentiment that is driving the market back & forth now, say Manish K. Pandey & Gyanendra Kashyap

It hasn’t been long since January 10, 2008 - the day when the Indian benchmark index Sensex touched its lifetime high of 21,206. The Sensex, many predicted, could easily cross 25,000-points mark, in no time, as the bull moved ahead with rampant optimism. Nothing seemed to bother it. But a deep cut of 1,408 points (the biggest intraday fall in the history of Sensex) on January 21, 2008 and the raging bull was at its knees. The morose pessimism could be seen among the investors too as the Sensex dropped to an appalling low of 15,332 the very next day (on January 22, 2008). And since that day it’s nothing else but skepticism, ambiguity and apprehension that’s ruling the market along with bears. The result - Sensex crashes by over 27% (since January 11, 2008) with almost every major listed company losing anything between 30% and 40% of their market capitalisation till date (March 25, 2008).

From fears of a recession in the US to Reliance Power mega issue (that sucked out a whopping $180 billion from the market), from rising inflation to escalating commodity and bullion prices, from heavy selling done by FIIs to anything and everything under the sun, got its share of the blame. But with domestic factors largely been taken care of, as of now, the market doesn’t seem to stabilise. Then what’s it now, if it’s none of these? “Skepticism is still there” says Satish Kannav, Senior Analyst, Arihant Capital Markets. “Certainly it will take time before confidence returns,” he adds on. So is it sentiments that have taken over all fundamental, technical and economical factors? Yes, to some extent (or should we say totally).“Market is driven by fundamentals but behavioural science puts premium to sentiments. While long term fundamentals become hazy, shorter term risk aversion increases. Naturally we are seeing this extremely negative sentiment in the market,” agrees Amitabh Chakraborty, President (Equity), Religare Securities. “90% sentimental, 10% fundamental,” another Delhi based analyst sums up the current swing in a simple phrase.

Let’s look at some recent examples to have a fair understanding of this so called ‘bear’ mindset of wary investors. On March 17, 2008, as the news filters in that JP Morgan is buying the beleaguered investment bank Bear Stearns for a mere $2 per share ($270 million in total) – a price which is about 15 times less than its ongoing trading price in the stock markets – the Sensex tanks over 951 points. The very next day the US policy makers further slash the Fed rate by 75 basis points (bps) and the Indian bourses bask in the glory of the same next week. “Greater integration of Indian markets and the economy through increased capital flows has made the Indian market more susceptible to global cues. So it may not be wrong to infer that global factors especially the US subprime led fears of a global recession have been the key reasons for this increased market volatility,” avers Sachchidanand Shukla, Economist with Enam Securities.

Well, blame it on the ‘foreign hand’ if nothing else. It is evident that despite all the brave talk on our part of robust and sustainable growth rate, domestic money et al, the foreign institutional investors (FIIs) still remains the most important driver of our markets as they account for 17% of the total equity turnover. So, it’s them that seem to face the obvious brunt. Questions put forth to a cross section of analysts reveal that the FII pullout has been at the main reason for the more than often bloodbath at the bourses. If we look at the numbers, their claim seems logical. For the month of January and March this year, FIIs net investments in the Indian stock market stood at a negative Rs.130.35 billion and Rs.22.76 billion (till March 25, 2008) respectively. So it’s this bunch of shrewd investors that seem running the market as of now (or always!).

But then, in the past, there have been several occasions when FIIs sold but the domestic investors ensured that the indices went up. For instance, on October 23, 2007, FIIs pulled out a massive Rs.12.1 billion, but the benchmark index rose by 4.9%. In the same way Federal rate cuts too haven’t had a consistent impact on the bourses. The latest being the rate cut on October 31, 2007 which took the Sensex down by 0.5% instead taking it up as it’s now. The same is true with the domestic issues too. On February 11, 2008, the Sensex crashed by 834 points on inflation worries as it went past 4%. However, it was the same indicator which stood firm when inflation was hovering around 6% during March last year.

The reasons are simple. “Over the last few months the markets have been plagued by a slew of bad news, both domestic and international, which has unnerved a lot of investors. Further, the events have also increased the confusion with respect to the direction that the markets would take hereon and hence it’s not surprising that they are reacting to all this and are becoming more volatile,” explains Hitesh Agrawal, Head, Research, Angel Broking. But then an imminent yet persistent question naturally crops up – how long and at what levels?

“We would be happy with about 12-13x forward Price Earnings (PE) multiple, given the extreme pessimism in the market. That brings us a range between 12,350 and 13,300 in short term. Longer term, fundamentals should prevail, and a 15-18% CAGR from a base of 13,000 Sensex probably takes us to 30,000-level in 3-4 years time,” says Chakraborty with great optimism. Although there is no way to foretell when the sentiment will turn but the ongoing bear phase has definitely made the valuations more realistic (PE, which was pegged at 27.67 at the start of 2008, has come down to 19.16 as on March 18, 2008). So, it shouldn’t come as a surprise if one sees the bull back in action shortly. But until then, let’s dance to the bear tune.

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Source : IIPM Editorial, 2008

An Initiative of IIPM, Malay Chaudhuri and Arindam chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist).

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Can he become the richest Indian in 2008?

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If all goes well with Reliance Power IPO, Anil Ambani’s net worth may be more than his brother, Mukesh. In terms of market cap, Anil’s ADAG group may become the second largest in India. But there are too many ‘ifs’ to be sorted out, including gas supply from Mukesh’s RIL

“No one is born an industrialist… even my father’s abilities were doubted when he went about setting the Jamnagar refinery.” This was how Anil Ambani, Chairman, ADAG, reacted as he kicked off India’s biggest-ever initial public offer (IPO) to mop up Rs.117 billon. Anil is convinced that the public issue of Reliance Power (RPL), a 51% subsidiary of Reliance Energy, will force his critics to treat him as a businessman par excellence. Well, he isn’t wrong too.

The initial trends are encouraging. Investors took just 60 seconds to fully subscribe to the issue and by the end of the first day there were 2.4 billion bids for just 260 million shares (10.52 times) on offer attracting a whopping Rs.1,080 billion worth of demand. “This was bound to happen,” says a broker with Religare. “The last few days have been hectic as clients are liquidating their positions to raise funds to take positions in the RPL IPO,” he adds on. Even in the grey market, RPL seems to be the hot pick. “While the scrip is trading at a premium of Rs.390-400 (offer price: Rs.450), speculators are offering a return of 9-10% on application before the scrip is listed,” confirms a Mumbai-based analyst.

More action is happening at the retail investors’ level. Considering the first day response many are sure that the issue will be highly oversubscribed and, hence, their allotments on a pro-rata basis may not be enough. So, some of them are pooling their resources to apply for larger lots. This helps them to maximise their immediate returns as they can benefit from the premium they hope to earn the day the scrip is listed at higher-than-offer price. Many brokers too are prepared to fund retail investors to apply for higher lots.

Retail investors can take advantage of the 5% discount offered by RPL, reservation of 30% of the issue for them, and an initial payment of 25% of the application amount. But if they do opt for the last option, they will have to forego the possible listing advantage (if the scrip is listed at a price that’s higher than the offer price), as they will be able to sell the shares only after they have made the full payment.

Anil has other reasons to be happy. Once RPL lists on the bourses in February, Anil has a fair chance to topple estranged brother Mukesh, and become the richest Indian. Anil’s 44% stake in RPL may be valued at $11 billion, and raise his net worth to a whopping $54 billion. It may also make the ADAG group the second largest in India in terms of market capitalisation. However, the critics are unimpressed.

They contend that the first of RPL’s 13 projects will go on-stream by December 2009, and is likely to make money in the next three years.

“Considering the long gestation periods of the projects, the issue appears to be highly overvalued. Although, on account of low liquidity and expected large oversubscription we expect the stock to list at a premium but it’s purely from a view to enjoy listing gains,” says a pre-IPO note from Emkay Share Brokers, a brokerage house.

Anil still has to sort out the matter of gas supplies from his brother Mukesh’s Reliance Industries; the issue is in the courts and, therefore, makes the business proposition seem a bit risky for investors. However, S. Mukherjee, CEO and MD, ICICI Securities disagrees: “The issue is not of owning reserves but of the availability of the fuel, which is available in plenty.” According to UBS, the cost of capital for RPL would be 20% less than state-run NTPC. With 13 projects with a capacity of 28,200 MW and proposed investments of $28 billion, RPL currently boasts of the largest development pipeline. That’s always a plus in the Indian power game.

Edit bureau: Manish K Pandey

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Source : IIPM Editorial, 2008

An Initiative of IIPM, Malay Chaudhuri and Arindam chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist).

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The ‘result’ant impact

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Results are as crucial to a company as they are for a student; it gives a clear picture of the past performance, with a disclosure that it may or may not be sustained in the future. Stephen Schwarzman, CEO and Co-founder of private equity firm – Blackstone, terms earnings as ‘tyranny of quarterly earnings’, Ram S. Ramasundar former CFO of Ranbaxy hails it as Life Q-S-Q-T (Quarter se Quarter tak), while Partha Sarathi Basu, CFO, SpiceJet, was caught tampering his report card, when SpiceJet actually reported a loss, after getting it audited (earlier the company had reported a profit for the quarter ending on June). But the fact remains the same, we may have won the battle, but the war waged by rupee appreciation on the export oriented units still needs to be won; and the results of export dependant sectors says it all.

While, industry’s big Daddies – Infosys, TCS and Wipro have reported an increase of 19.8% (net profit of Rs.10.74 billion), 22.8% (net profit of Rs.12.53 billion) and 14.29% (net profit of Rs.7.60 billion), respectively, for the quarter ending September 2007; mid-sized firms including Mastek, iGate Global and CMC Ltd. seem to have faired well too. However, unlike the corresponding period of the previous year, these IT companies were not able to put up a splendid show with their bottom lines, though top lines remained intact.

Apart from interest rate sensitive and export oriented sectors, the rest of the pack including capital goods, telecom, power, oil & gas are expected to deliver a power punch. “We would not like to comment on stocks. But we are greatly excited by some of the sectors like capital goods, energy, banking and financials, where we are currently overweight for our India dedicated funds,” says Arindam Ghosh, CEO of Mirae Asset Global investment.

Axis Bank (formerly UTI Bank) faired better than state owned IDBI and Allahabad Bank on the back of strong loan growth and fee income. Reliance Energy’s net profit jumped 34% to Rs.250 crores for the quarter ended September from Rs.186.3 crores in the same quarter a year ago. Reliance Industries too reported a 28% increase in net profit at Rs.38.37 billion, way above street expectations. The valuations of Indian stocks markets continue to be well justified by the corporate performance QSQT and the report card looks promising in times to come.

Edit bureau: Asif Ahmed

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Source : IIPM Editorial, 2008

An Initiative of IIPM, Malay Chaudhuri and Arindam chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist).

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PESTER - POWER!

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HAS THIS WESTERN NIGHTMARE INVADED INDIAN HOUSEHOLDS?

What is Pester-Power? At its simplest it means kids – from age 3 to 18 – pestering (read: nagging, whining, badgering, irritating, harassing, annoying) the living hell out of their parents to buy advertised products! This terminology was born – where else but the capital of obscene conspicuous consumption – in the USA in the late 70’s when this phenomenon first raised its ominous head. Very soon it became an uncontrollable epidemic-like reality-turned-nightmare!

Truth is, kids (traditionally) have always nudged and pushed their parents to buy stuff, but never was it a hair-tearing, cardiac-arrest routine, right? This avtaar is a fairly new phenomenon and accurately reflects the changing contours of the child-parent relationship in a fast-altering sociological landscape. Today, thanks to an insatiable, all-pervasive consumer society, sharper kids, exposure to a 24x7 media onslaught, peer pressure, double-income families leading to more disposable income and finally the “guilt” factor, parents seem to be caving in to pester-power much more quickly. Marketers, (forever tracking which side the bread is buttered and how fast the cookie crumbles), have been quick to leap in and create a whole array of irresistible children-friendly wants and needs that get the kids really charged! Today’s kids want more and they want it now!

Fact not fiction. According to the recently released Disney’s Kidsense 2007 survey, 63% kids are discussing products that span not only conventional kiddie categories, but go across the spectrum. This means that they go beyond the traditional clothes, sweets, bicycles and toys range to embrace DVD players, cars, mobile phones… even holiday destinations! The interesting and revealing part is that many parents today actually turn to their children for information regarding hi-ticket, hi-end, techno stuff. So the age of the Alpha pup is here and kidfluence is getting bigger each day. Communication guru Santosh Desai, CEO, Future Brands believes that today more than ever before, “we are all children of the age of consumption. Kids are hotter and hipper with the new lingo jargons of this phenomenon than their elders and therefore more comfortable with it.” No wonder they are constantly tuned-in or logged on to the latest trends! In this new environ of KGOY (Kids Getting Older Younger), soft toys and board games are quickly dumped for ACs and iPods. In fact, apart from booze and condoms – insists the irrepressible Prahlad Kakkar – kids today have a say in pretty much all the purchases made at home. And boy, do they exercise it! Moon-Moon Dhar, a working mother with two kids (aged 12 & 6) has that glazed look when talking about Pester Power.

“Oh, Pester-Power has arrived in India and is a total reality! My six year old tells me that I should take Tata Sky and cable is crap! I have to spend close to two hundred bucks a strike to see Bhool Bhulaiya and not Laga Chunri Mein Daag because the kids say so. As for their own stuff – food, entertainment, clothes, toys – that’s a different (and scary) ball-game! He has his own birthday list, dictates the menu (“no samosas please. Kids hate it!”); and explains why two varieties of Pizza’s should be ordered (“there are vegetarians also and everybody doesn’t like chicken, mamma?”). Amit Sahai, Media Manager, Perfect 10 Advertising and father of a 12 year old son, categorically believes that everything is not negative about this phenomenon and it’s wrong to perceive it in that manner. “Today’s kids are smarter, savvier, powered with a stronger sense of curiosity, more exposed to the media (than us in our early years) and in every way more knowledgeable about some categories of products than us. So, if they advise – or demand – something, it might be a good idea to see it in that light instead of pester power!” Also, he believes the age of self-denial and simple living and high thinking is clearly over. Parents slog to give their kids the best. Also the parent-child equation has changed dramatically “to the extent that they go beyond information to becoming consultants in the final purchase pattern.” Sahai lays bare a very critical point. “If your child is a pampered, spoilt brat, whose fault is that? If your parenting is right then there is no fear of pester power. The decisions will be informed and mutually agreed upon. At the end of the day, if you give your kids the power of freedom, responsibility and accountability, it can work wonders.”

Designer Seema Sethi – with two daughters aged 14 & 8 – doesn’t waste any time agreeing to the trials and trauma let loose by Pester Power! She gives the example of her younger daughter dismissing locally made pencils (NATRAJ) to go for foreign makes because “they are really cool!” Also, she just had to see OSO (Om Shanti Om) ASAP, otherwise she would not be considered with it and trendy!” Journo Sapna Khanna agrees. “My seven year old daughter made me take a conducted tour of at least 3 shops before she condescended to approve of a dress! Madam certainly has definite opinions and I dare not go against it. It won’t work!” As for her 12 year old son, he is into hi-end techno stuff and luxury cares, “which frequently makes us very nervous, but in some ways forces us to work harder and raise the bar to fulfil their expectations.” However, both Seema and Sapna concede that when the crunch comes, they know where to draw the line. So, do the kids listen then? “They moan, groan, complain, sulk … but eventually get the message.”

So, eventually, what does Pester Power mean to you… an early loss of innocence or a leap of knowledge and awareness? Your call!

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Source : IIPM Editorial, 2008

An Initiative of IIPM, Malay Chaudhuri and Arindam chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist).

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Painting the town red, in total ‘King’fisher style

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Saviour to the sector and service to his guests – that’s Kingfisher for you, says 4Ps B&M’s Steven Philip Warner


Chairman@flykingfisher.com – and that’s not a dummy address (you can try it!). And how many times have you heard of dissatisfied customers sending an e-mail directly to the chairman? That for you is the level of service commitment guaranteed by Kingfisher Airlines… To be more direct, Vijay Mallya, Chairman, Kingfisher Airlines, has taken things ‘personally’ to ensure that his customers get the best of crew-service and is further stressing on increased innovative offerings in the future, as he tells 4Ps B&M, “Kingfisher Airlines has always been at the forefront by constantly innovating. The innovations span three broad areas – product and service offering, marketing-related innovations and finally innovations in terms of delivery and distribution. Even in the future, the focus will be on raising service standards even further!” For him, sky indeed ‘is’ the limit!

“Great food, vibrant ambience, in-flight entertainment (IFE) system with about 31 live, video and radio channels, on-time service with the best record of being on-time, minimum cancellations and yes of course, charming hostesses (its USP), making the ride worth remembering for passengers aboard every Kingfisher flight,” quotes an amiable Supreet Kaur, a flight-attendant who worked at Kingfisher Airlines. She further adds, “It’s a great place to work with and such a healthy atmosphere. Yes, sometimes it gets rough ensuring that the passengers get the best of what we call a world-class service, but that’s almost everywhere… And yes, at Kingfisher they’re guests!”

“Superb!” you might remark; but there are also other reasons why Kingfisher Airlines is regarded as a major force of India Inc., especially during the year gone by. So what is the key strategic reason for it breaking into the most admired listing? Well, on one hand when the entire industry bled a most heartrending $500 million in losses during the previous year – all thanks to the unintelligent price cuts, led by the domestic low-lost carriers (LCCs), Kingfisher is not only taking steps to ensure that Indians don’t undergo a nightmare flight, it has even endeavoured to save the entire sector from the fangs of the ‘loss-trap’ monster. And the corroboration of the same can be found in the fact that after Kingfisher acquired a $137 million worth 26% stake in the low-cost king, Air Deccan, (an airline which previously led the price cut policies from the front), it has raised fares substantially, with other LCCs too following suit. And for all those who thought that Mallya was only a strategic investor, he is much more than that; now a literal general at Air Deccan! If this gets a little hard to imagine, did you miss the historic moment when Air Deccan announced a shed-off of its blue & yellow colours and a shift to the time-honoured ‘red’ hue of Kingfisher Airlines; its punch line too changing to ‘Fly’ Deccan (identical to ‘Fly’ Kingfisher!)?

And what about punctuality? Well, “Mallya receives a message on his cell-phone for every Kingfisher flight that leaves the runway across India. He has his eyes glued to his cell phone; perhaps 24 x 7! If there’s even a slight error on the part of the airline officials which causes delays, they’ve had it!” quotes an insider. “You have to be on your toes all the time. The passenger is always right, and that’s a code Kingfisher attendants have got to live by,” adds Supreet, which pretty much explains why Kingfisher is setting some high standards in the Indian domestic aviation scenario. Today, having chosen a new brand ambassador (call her Deepika Padukone), Kingfisher is doing all it takes to make its flight remembered by its passengers as Binit Somaia, Regional Director, CAPA, asserts, “Kingfisher has adopted an effective branding strategy. Hence within a short time-period, Kingfisher has achieved a very positive reputation.”

However, there are still issues that Kingfisher faces at the moment. The chief being, lack of infrastructure, which hopefully will get sorted out before Kingfisher receives 10 new Airbus aircrafts in 2008. Next is the shortage of trained pilots. But here, Kingfisher appears to be ahead of the pack. As per an insider, “Officials at Kingfisher are lobbying to raise the duration that pilots from overseas can stay in India to upto six years and to reduce the time it takes for an Indian national to convert a foreign license to an Indian one which today takes between a half to upto a full year.” As of today, many Indian airlines are even sending across incumbents to training courses in the US. “Kingfisher has tied-up with flight institutes in Arizona and California which offer a nine-month pilot training course for about $45,000 and the first batch is expected to get ready in February 2008. Those who qualify the medical and written rounds will be hired back by Kingfisher.”

Sure enough, when many criticised Mallya’s taste for fashion, even his competitors are talking about his strategic shrewdness. After all, getting everything right – from the seats, inner-flight designing to the cutlery painted ‘red’, seems to be paying-off. And for those not convinced with Kingfisher being ahead of the pack like Praveen Vetrivel, Aviation Analyst, IBA Group, London, who divulges, “Kingfisher claims that they have the best overall product in the Indian airline industry. But having travelled Kingfisher and other domestic airlines in India, I am not entirely convinced that this is the case.” It’s time to send an e-mail.

Source : IIPM Editorial, 2008

An Initiative of IIPM, Malay Chaudhuri and Arindam chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist).

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A sizzle & a fizzle!

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Amazon is yet to get ‘on’line in India...

Monumental has been the impact of online retailing on the fortunes of quite a few companies. One such destination is Amazon.com. Recently, the company reported a sky-rocketing second quarter net profits of $78 million (from $22 million for theprevious year), which is as high as three-folds, compared to the last quarter in 2006. And this was despite a relatively modest rise in sales of 35% to reach $2.89 billion.

A majority of Amazon’s sales comprise electronic products and other general merchandise items, which grew in revenues by 55% to $970 million and accounted for 34% of overall business. As far as media is concerned, the book sales at Amazon rose by 27% to $1.8 billion, which included over two million pre-orders for the final edition of Harry Potter book, globally.

Retail analyst, Nolatpal Chakravarti, does agree that e-retailing is a growing concept that the industry is now quickly adopting. With respect to electronic goods being a major part of Amazon’s revenues, he comments, “As far as electronic goods are concerned – mostly comprising e-sales – the trend is not going to sustain longer, as other segments would contribute equally in the future.”

The trends of online-retailing are much visible in regions like North America & the UK as sales by Amazon are up by 38% for the former & 31% for the latter. There is, however, one bastion that still eludes retailers like Amazon – fast developing markets like India & China. On this, Chakravarti adds, “Countries like India & China are still struggling hard due to perception of people to physically feel the product & then purchase.” Concerns of credit card frauds only complicate the matters here. Just can’t win them all, eh?
Edit bureau: Disha Gandhi

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Source : IIPM Editorial, 2008

An Initiative of IIPM, Malay Chaudhuri and Arindam chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist).

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Here’s a retail titan which believes in inculcating values rather than waste time delving over petty issues of attrition & retention there of...

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Audacious! – A word seldom used to describe an industry. But then, rarely has there been an instance of an industry showing such effrontery to prove the market watchers wrong and orchestrate a spectacular turnaround. Any guesses about which sector we’re talking about? It is undoubtedly the Indian retail sector, which is scaling gravity-defying heights. Retailing in India today stands at a never before seen crossroads and is progressing at such a scorching pace that players are readying themselves to entrench themselves fully in the retail sector. From Pantaloons to Shopper’s Stop, from RPG Group to Lifestyle, from Reliance Retail to the yet to be launched Bharti-Wal-Mart venture –all are unveiling new growth plans, lest they miss the retail bus. Factors such as changing demographics, upswing in the middle class population along with growth in disposable incomes and easy financing schemes are making India the next major retail destination of the country. If numbers are any indication of the potential of the sector, then CII has forecasted that organised retailing which stands at Rs.350 billion currently is said to touch the Rs.1.1 trillion mark in the next five years.

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Source : IIPM Editorial, 2008

An Initiative of IIPM, Malay Chaudhuri and Arindam chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist).

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Nontraditional Distribution Channels

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The company is also utilising nontraditional distribution channels, besides regular audio and video outlets to augment its reach. But has the company taken into account recent technological innovations like video-ondemand, IPTV, pay per view et al? “Content ownership & license will clearly be the key differentiator! Moreover, our distribution model will ensure that we continue to have an edge over competition for a long time,” counters Mathur. Further, announcing plans to venture into film production, the group clearly wants to be a big player in the entertainment business. With experts predicting that the entertainment industry is set to grow at a staggering 18% over the next five years, Moser Baer is not misplaced in its optimism.

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Source : IIPM Editorial, 2008

An Initiative of IIPM, Malay Chaudhuri and Arindam chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist).

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