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Tuesday, December 14, 2010

An exclusive TSI-CVoter Opinion Poll on politics and governance

Prof Rajita Chaudhuri follow some off-beat trends like organizing make up sessions

What do you see Rahul Gandhi as?

The scion of the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty is credited with turning around the party's image in the Hindi heartland and making it more youth-centric. Equally at ease in a Dalit hamlet in Uttar Pradesh as well as a reputed Delhi college, the Congress' Prince charming has surely left a lasting impression on the minds of his countrymen as is evident from this poll.

Who do you think is responsible for price rise?

The Central government has been held widely responsible but more people have still held black marketing and hoarding as the principal reason. Rising prices of essential goods including foodstuff and fuel has hit both low and middle income groups. It is widely believed that the Union agriculture ministry and the state governments did not play any proactive role to alleviate people's hardship. The Opposition BJP has also accused the Prime Minister of turning a blind eye to the problem for the sake of coalition politics. In spite of the price rise blot, the Congress won. Why?

The overwhelming opinion seems to be the Opposition's lack of trustworthiness and its failure to turn this into a major election issue. A sizeable percentage also believes that it was not just the Congress' fault.

What is the reason behind the failure of BJP in acting as a good Opposition Party?

The BJP prospects have been marred by internal squabbling. Nitin Gadkari has been brought in to unify the party's rank and file but he is widely perceived to be the RSS' man in the party. It is yet to recover from the shock of the LS polls.

Are you satisfied with the performance of your Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh? How would you rate Dr Singh's performance?

The economist seems to be going from strength to strength. The soft-spoken, mild-mannered Sikh gentleman has a picture-perfect clean image. Though perceived to be pro-reforms, he has maintained a balance between sweeping economic reforms and populist, pro-poor measures. Not the proverbial Indian politician, Dr Singh keeps away from party matters as far as possible and concentrates on running the government. Having faced a lot of flak for his non-interference in the manner in which the Union agriculture ministry has handled the price rise issue, his government has been crucially undecisive about ways to tackle the growing Maoist influence. However, a weak Opposition has been God-sent for this man of few words.

Satisfied with the performance of Sushma Swaraj?

The current Leader of the Opposition in the Lok Sabha has failed to take the Congress to task in the Lower House. Factionalism within the party as well as a lack of charisma on part of the tallest leaders have made Swaraj's task harder. She will need to make a deep impression if the BJP's image and future poll prospects are to brighten.

Satisfied with the performance of NDA Chief L.K. Advani?

The BJP's Man of Iron, the former Deputy Prime Minister and one of the talismans of the Ram Mandir movement seems to have lost all steam. BJP insiders have repeatedly blamed him for failing to re-invent the BJP's image in the post-Mandir agitation political scenario. While his role is now more symbolic, the party patriarch has also had major differences with the various outfits of the Sangh Parivar.

Satisfied with the performance of UPA Chairperson Sonia Gandhi?

The lady from Italy has proved to be the BJP's ultimate nemesis. By maintaining a dignified distance from running the government and by astute handling of allies and party members, the UPA supremo has approval ratings double than that of L.K. Advani. Never in the forefront, she has been ably assisted by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Union finance minister Pranab Mukherjee among others. Are you satisfied with the performance of the sitting MP of your area?

Do you agree with incorporation of caste in the census ?

Apparently trying to play it safe for the time being and buy some time, the UPA government, towards the end of May 2010, deferred a decision on inclusion of caste in Census but the Cabinet is overwhelmingly in support of the inclusion with the exceptions of Kapil Sibal, Anand Sharma and MS Gill. Union finance minister Pranab Mukherjee has been entrusted to lead a group of ministers who will thrash out the modalities of enumerating caste in the ongoing decennial Census operations. BJP has alleged that Congress is using CBI against its political rivals. Do you agree with this?

The CBI has turned into the Congress Bureau of Investigation, allege Opposition leaders. They say the CBI is making little headway on the bomb blast cases but is feverishly probing into disproportionate asset cases against Gujarat chief minister Narendra Modi, Uttar Pradesh chief minister Mayawati. Even the Left is miffed about enquiries in Kerala. What are your views about Today's India?

While most respondents from the middle and higher income groups climb India's rocket growth curve, people from lower income groups, specially in the rural parts, have been hard done in by inflation and crop failure. Well, India is not really shining, it seems. Performance of the Central Government?

The UPA does not have much to rejoice. Most people feel its performance has been average. The numbers of people who feel it has fared well and poor are pretty much the same. If the government does not take the price rise issue seriously and take steps to control inflation, the public opinion may change drastically. There are many problems facing our country today. The Most Important issue : First Choice

Most of the respondents feel that terror strikes, rising unemployment, escalating prices, lack of facilites and basic infrastructure and, of course, the perennial problem of corruption need to be tackled. Surprisingly the Maoist problem found no takers. Even the education system drew minimal flak. In last one year your living standard

The urban middle class and higher income group people thought their living standard has improved. This can, of course, be attributed to higher consumer spending and a good growth rate rather than generation of jobs or rise in salaries.


Mood of the Nation

Cong holds ground in season of doubt

The TSI-C VOTER survey on Mood of the Nation surprisingly augurs well for the Congress party and the UPA-II dispensation that it leads. No body would have thought of this outcome considering the ever-increasing price burden put on people and the ever-growing Maoist influence in various states of the country. What perhaps has not been surprising is the dismal perception about the main Opposition BJP. It seems the Saffron party is failing its responsibility of acting as a credible counterweight to the Congress or so feel the respondents.

The face of the country, Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh, has had a thumbs up from the respondents with 45 per cent calling his performance good and 33 per cent average as against only 18 per cent rating him poor. Unfortunately, the same can't be said about current Opposition leader Sushma Swaraj with 34 per cent people terming her work as poor, 31 per cent average and only 20 per cent good. NDA supremo and once-talismanic L.K.Advani seems down in the pits with 44 per cent respondents calling his performance poor as against 29 per cent average and only 18 per cent terming his work good. UPA chairperson Sonia Gandhi has got favourable response too, with 46 per cent marking her performance good and 29 per cent average as against 20 per cent calling her work poor. About 53 per cent of the respondents feel that Congress scion Rahul Gandhi should be made the Prime Minister and 43 per cent say he is a ray of hope for Indian politics.

The current Central government has fared well according to 30 per cent of the respondents where as 42 per cent termed its performance average with 26 per cent saying it is poor. The feel good factor, however, abandons the Congress when people vent their opinion on price rise. Most, at 33 per cent, hold the black market responsible while 30 per cent say the Centre is responsible. State governments have nearly been absolved of their responsibilities for the same. About 15 per cent of the people surveyed say that the Congress fared well in the Lok Sabha elections in spite of the price rise as people did not trust the Opposition. Another 16 per cent say the Congress alone is not responsible for the rising prices while 9 per cent say the Opposition failed to turn price rise into a raging election issue.

Most people (41 per cent) feel that internal politics of BJP is responsible for its failure to act as a good Opposition party while 19 per cent blamed lack of coordination between other Opposition parties for the mess.

On inclusion of the contentious caste category in Census, public opinion is evenly divided for and against. The survey throws up curious statistics on people's awareness about different bills discussed in Parliament. Where as 37 per cent are aware of the names of a few bills tabled in Parliament, only six per cent are aware of the Civil Nuclear Liability Bill. Only three per cent of the respondents were familiar with the Prevention of Torture Bill. Methodology

The Mood of the Nation opinion poll has been carried out with a national representative sample of 8,721 randomly selected respondents. The survey was done with CVoter's specially designed Computer Assisted Telephonic Interviews (CATI) process across 180 Lok Sabha seats. The survey was conducted in April-May 2010. The data received has been weighted to India's Census profile. Margin of error is plus or minus 3 per cent. As part of our Mood of the Nation initiative, CVoter is now keeping weekly track of the pulse of the people and what India's rural and urban masses are thinking and feeling about local and national governance. This is being facilitated by CVoter's Weekly Omnibus wherein our researchers quiz voters for their perception about the performance of the country's political leaders. They also keep a tab on the contemporary issues that matter to the masses. We hope that the initiative will not just help voters make their voices heard but will also hopefully serve as a weekly reminder to the nation's political bosses about the immediate and long-term needs and ambitions of the voters who brought them to power in the first place. SCORE: 0=Worst & 10=Best

-6.58

Are you satisfied with the performance of the Central government? How would you rate the current government's performance?

6.39

Are you satisfied with the performance of Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh? How would you rate his performance?

5.13

Are you satisfied with the performance of the Leader of Opposition, Sushma Swaraj? How would you rate her work?

6.59

Are you satisfied with the performance of the UPA chairperson, Sonia Gandhi? How would you rate her work?

4.73

Are you satisfied with the performance of NDA Chief L.K.Advani? How would you rate the leader's performance?

An Initiative of IIPM, Malay Chaudhuri and Arindam chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist).

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