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Monday, March 14, 2011

The Bald Eagle and the Arabian Mirage

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As America shapes its Iranian discourse on the flawed logic of Arab's Persian mistrust, Tehran has the last laugh on the Arab streets


Peter the Great, the Tsar of Russia, used to take on Sweden quite frequently, during the days of latter's dominion in Scandinavia, and used to get thrashed every now and then. During one of those hundreds of defeats, he is purported to have said to his gloomy general: 'Be not concerned! Eventually the Swedes are going to teach us how to fight.' And that is what happened. Peter managed to stop the Swedes' Eastward march by learning the tricks of the trade from the Swedes themselves.

The 2010 Arab Public Opinion Poll by Zogby International and Maryland University says the same about Iran. After being whacked by the US all these years in propaganda warfare, the Iranians seem to have learnt the tricks and have successfully applied them on the US itself.

This magazine for quite a long time has maintained that the policy debates and discourses about Iran in the US are warped by a number of 'myths' and 'misinformation'. This misinformation mainly concerns the functioning of the regime, its domestic and foreign policies, its outreach and its power'both hard and soft. Among these scores of misinformation, the most significant one that has been driving the Tehran discourse in Washington is through strenuous diplomatic exploit, the US can isolate the Islamic Republic of Iran, both regionally and globally. And how do Americans believe that they can achieve this? The entire gameplan to isolate Iran in the Gulf is based on a proposition that since Iran has a deep-rooted Persian identity and that it adheres to Shiite Islam unlike many of the countries in the region, it will always be viewed with mistrust, if not outright resentment, by West Asia's mostly Sunni Arab populace. The poll suggests that these assumptions are just that - assumptions. Not only is this unchallenged but is, in fact, diametrically opposite to what Arab street thinks.

The Iranian discourse was propelled by the proposition that this supposed mistrust and antagonism against Iran in the region can be played up to convince Arabs that a nuclear-armed Iran is more dangerous than the obviously nuclear-armed Israel.

'The suggestion that the US has a staid and tactically dynamic alternative to isolate Iran in its region is, evidently, not new ' it is mirrored in efforts by the Clinton, George W. Bush, and Obama administrations to build a regional federation to 'contain' Iran, encompassing 'moderate' Sunni Arab nations along with Israel. But this conception has gained a larger toehold of late, beside claims of 'rumblings' that fresh sanctions have started to kindle domestic political strain on the Iranian regime,' says Jim Lobe, a Washington-based Iran analyst. 'But these efforts are yet to see the light of day primarily because they are based on deeply flawed assumptions.'

Shibley Telhami released the results of his 2010 Arab Public Opinion Poll, conducted annually with Zogby International. One must also keep in mind that Telhami holds the Anwar Sadat Chair at the University of Maryland and is a non-resident fellow at the Saban Centre for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution. So it is very clear that he can be anything but a 'pro-Iranian' voice. The results can barely be reassuring for those who would like to deem that the Islamic Republic is becoming alienated from its regional neighbours and that Arabs are all set to be on their feet alongside Israelis to shore up military exploits by Israel or the US against Iranian nuclear mark.

Among the respondents, a bulk ' 57 per cent ' thinks that Iran's nuclear programme is intended at developing nuclear weapons. Nonetheless, an even larger preponderance of these exclusively Arab respondents ' 77 per cent ' perceives that Iran has the right to follow its nuclear programme; only 20 per cent consent that Iran should be stressed by the global community to discontinue the programme. The figure for the support is up from 53 per cent in 2009.

Ironically, in Egypt and Morocco, two of the Arab countries whom the West perceives as strongly anti-Iran, vast majorities among those who deem that Iran's nuclear programme is aimed at achieving nuclear weapons capability ' 81 per cent and 84 per cent respectively consider that Iran is within its sovereign right to do so. Even in Wahabi Saudi Arabia, around half of the population wants Iran to develop such weapons and consider that act rightful.

However, the most extraordinary conclusion in this year's poll is that 57 per cent of the respondents consider that Iran's attainment of nuclear weapons would be a positive and constructive outcome for the region, whilst merely 21 per cent deem this to be a negative outcome.

This strengthens this magazine's estimation that however much a few Sunni Arab privileged ' and they are not many frankly ' might wish to witness Iran being 'cut down to size', there is extremely diminutive popular support for conflict with the Iranian regime on the Arab alleys.

It appears Washington has been building its perceptions about things based on the views of Arab diplomats and so-called experts who have been widely out-of-sync with opinion on the streets. Leave alone buying their argument on Iran.

Asked to rank the two nations that pose the principal threat to the Arab world, 88 per cent of the voters named Israel and 77 per cent named the US ' the top two scorers on this query, by orders of enormity over any other nation on the globe. Contrary to that, merely 10 per cent Arabs think Iran to be a bigger threat than both these countries. And just to put it in perspective, these polls were not conducted in Syria, Iraq, Qatar and among Gazans and other Palestinians living under Israeli occupation'the groups who are supposed to be pro-Iranian and staunchly anti-American.

And if that was not enough, when asked to name the world leader that they approve of the most, 12 per cent of the Arab respondents named Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. It makes him the third most admired leader in the Arab world'after Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez. 'Arab perceptions of the US are shaped principally through the prism of the Arab-Israeli question. And Arab perceptions of Iran are truly the function of perceptions of the US and projection for harmony in the Middle East,' says Hillary Mann Leveret, an ex-US official and an Iran watcher based in Washington DC, while talking to TSI.

It reflects that Arabs have shifted from their wait-and-see approach toward the incumbent president and the support for Iran is being perceived as a manifestation of that resentment and frustration.

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